O-78 Assessing trends and patterns in premature mortality in Jamaica: A population-level descriptive ecological study

Methods: We conducted a descriptive ecological study of deaths among Jamaican residents between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2019 using data from death certificates (the Registrar General’s Department) and the National Census (Statistical Institute of Jamaica). Premature mortality was measured as the years of potential life lost (YPLL) before age 70 years, and was calculated per 100,000 population, overall, by age group, sex, and cause. Direct standardized rates were calculated using the World Standard Population (2000-2025). Trends over the study period were assessed using the absolute difference in age-standardized and age-specific rates of YPLL, with Joinpoint regression used to identify statistically significant changes.

Results: Between 2010 and 2019, there were 170,689 registered deaths among Jamaican residents. Of these, just over 40% were premature (N=72,557; 42.5% of all deaths). Overall, the age-standardized rate of all-cause premature mortality increased by 1.45% per annum over the 10-year study period, from 6,246 to 7,355 YPLL per 100,000 population (average annual percent change [AAPC] 1.45; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.52 to 2.42). Notably, the rate of all-cause premature mortality was consistently higher among males, but females experienced a larger increase over time (females: AAPC 1.88, 95% CI 0.29 to 3.46; males: AAPC 1.13, 95% CI 0.02 to 2.21). Leading causes of premature death across sexes were maternal & perinatal conditions (range: 1,287 to 1,730 per 100,000), neoplasms (range: 1,066 to 1,192 per 100,000), and circulatory diseases (range: 801 to 1,150 per 100,000).

Conclusion: Findings suggest that premature mortality is rising in Jamaica, with variation by sex, age, and cause. These data can be used to inform, develop, and tailor strategies to enhance life expectancy in Jamaica and beyond.